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• Veterans Disability Costs exceed Stiglitz-Bilmes estimates
• New CBO study confirms high cost of treating new veterans with PTSD and TBI
• What have we learned from Iraq?
• Five Painful Lessons from the Iraq War
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• Ten Years in Afghanistan
• New Op-ed in Los Angeles Times by Bilmes and Stiglitz
• Recent commentary by the authors on the costs of 9/11
• Rising US death toll in Afghanistan: lessons from history
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• Stiglitz Bilmes new book chapter in the Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict
• Wars are one of the main reasons why the US debt is so high

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The Watson Institute at Brown University, funded by the Eisenhower Institute, has published a wide-ranging new study of Iraq and Afghanistan war costs that was compiled by some 20 academic contributors and led by Professors Catherine Lutz (Brown) and Neta Crawford (Boston University).  Contributors include Andrew Bacevich (BU) , Winslow Wheeler (Center on Defense Information), Anita Dancs (National Priorities Project), Ryan Edwards (Queens College, NYU) and many others.  Linda Bilmes wrote the section of the report that estimates the costs attributable to veterans medical care and disability benefits.

The study focused particularly on war costs that have occurred (or been incurred but not yet paid) during the past decade since September 11, 2011.  It features important new work on the casualties and costs to defense contractors, and the social impact on military families.   The section by Winslow Wheeler analyzes the increases in the defense base budget over the past decade.  Portions of the report focus on costs to Iraq and to the region.   The website includes a range of charts and tables.    The study covers overlapping, but somewhat different ground, from the Stiglitz-Bilmes study.

SEE: http://costsofwar.org/

Read our latest book chapter, Chapter 13: in the Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict:

Link to Book: http://www.socsci.uci.edu/~mrgarfin/OUP/

Link to Chapter 13: “Estimating the costs of war: Methodological issues, with applications to Iraq and Afghanistan.” :  http://www.socsci.uci.edu/~mrgarfin/OUP/papers/Bilmes.pdf

The violence in Iraq continues daily.  This month, the country suffered its single deadliest attack of the year, a suicide truck bombing in Taza, Iraq, that killed 80 people, wounded more than 200, and destroyed at least 50 buildings. As usual, these were innocent civilians going to market, attending mosque and attempting to live normal lives.

This partially explains the stunning statistic that out of 2.7 million Iraqis who have been “internally displaced” during the war — kicked out of their homes by ethnic violence and intimidation, or forced to leave due to destruction of their plumbing, electricity and roads — a tiny fraction, fewer than 1%, have returned home, according to the respected Brookings Iraq Index (http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf ).   IN addition,  another two million Iraqis (mostly middle class professionals who had enough money to get out) fled the country entirely. Fewer than 70,000 of these refugees have returned home.  The vast majority are seeking permanent asylum in Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Iran and other countries.

In total, this means that over 15% of the Iraqi population has been forced to flee their homes.  And despite considerable financial incentives from the Iraqi government for them to return, the overwhelming majority have decided that they have a better chance of a decent life if they stay where they are.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/06/21/Death-toll-hits-80-in-Iraq-truck-bombing/UPI-33981245624015/

Three years ago, as America was preparing to go to war in Iraq, there were few discussions of the likely costs.  When Larry Lindsey, President Bush’s economic adviser, suggested that they might reach $200 billion, there was a quick response from the White House:  that number was a gross overestimation.(2)   Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz claimed that Iraq could “really finance its own reconstruction,” apparently both underestimating what was required and the debt burden facing the country.  Lindsey went on to say that “The successful prosecution of the war would be good for the economy.”(3)

Many aspects of the Iraq venture have turned out differently from what was purported before the war:  there were no weapons of mass destruction, no clear link between Al Qaeda and Iraq, no imminent danger that would warrant a pre-emptive war.  Whether Americans were greeted as liberators or not, there is evidence that that they are now viewed as occupiers.  Stability has not been established.  Clearly, the benefits of the War have been markedly different from those claimed.

So too for the costs.  It now appears that Lindsey was indeed  wrong—by grossly underestimating the costs.  Congress has already appropriated approximately $357 billion for military operations, reconstruction, embassy costs, enhanced security at US bases and foreign aid programs in Iraq and Afghanistan. This total, which covers costs through the end of November 2005, includes $251bn for military operations in Iraq, $82bn for Afghanistan and $24bn for related foreign operations, such as reconstruction, embassy safety and base security.(4)  These costs have been rising throughout the war. Since FY 2003, the monthly average cost of operations has risen from $4.4bn to $7.1 bn – the costs of operations in Iraq have grown by nearly 20% since last year (whereas Afghanistan was 8% lower than last year).(5)   The Congressional Budget Office has now estimated that in their central, mid-range scenario, the Iraq war will cost over $266 billion more in the next decade, putting the direct costs of the war in the range of $500 billion(6).

from Bilmes, Linda, and Joseph E. Stiglitz. “The Economic Costs of The IRAQ WAR:  An Appraisal Three Years After the Beginning of The Conflict.” Paper prepared for presentation at the ASSA meeting, 2006

Download the full paper here as a PDF.

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